Breeders' Cup Classic Analysis & Picks

Before we get into the picks, it is necessary to provide a little background for casual horse racing fans regarding the meaning of this race.  While the Kentucky Derby is undoubtedly the most popular horse race every year, it might surprise many to learn that the competition in the Derby is significantly less talented than that in the Breeders' Cup Classic.  The reason for this is that the Kentucky Derby, along with the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, are limited to three year old horses.  The Breeders' Cup Classic, which should be considered the “Super Bowl” of American horse racing, allows for three year olds and upward.  Without further ado, let's breakdown some horses (so to speak).

The Favorite

#9 Game On Dude (8-5), Trainer Bob Baffert, Jockey Mike Smith

Game On Dude, the lone west coast horse in the field, is clearly the best horse in the country.  He is in the midst of one of the best years a six year old has ever had.  In five graded stakes races in 2013 (3 G1s and 2 G2s), the Bob Baffert trained horse is undefeated.  However, odds of 8-5 indicate a win probability of 38.46%.  Giving any horse that high of odds to win what is the most competitive race in the United States seems unwise.  This is especially true considering that no six year old has ever won the Breeders' Cup Classic and, while in top form a year ago, Game On Dude finished seventh in this very race.  Additionally, there are three other strong speed horses (Fort Larned, Moreno, Paynter) who could push the pace and make it difficult for Game On Dude to complete his typical gate to wire victory.  While I still believe this horse has the best chance in the field of winning this race, I am looking elsewhere for value.

Value Picks

#6 Mucho Macho Man (5-1), Trainer Kathy Ritvo, Jockey Gary Stevens

Typically an east coast horse, Mucho Macho Man has performed extremely well in two trips to Santa Anita.  In his first attempt in Arcadia, he finished a half-length behind the Fort Larned in this very race, earning a 110 Beyer Speed Figure.  In his last race here, Gary Stevens took the mount and won a G1 by an impressive four lengths over Paynter.  If the defending champion Fort Larned and Game On Dude get into a speed duel, I see Mucho Macho Man coming from just off the pace for a late victory.

#10 Will Take Charge (12-1), Trainer D. Wayne Lukas, Jockey Luis Saez

As horse racing aficionados are well aware, horses typically peak around the age of four.  The difference between a three and four year old horse is a more significant gap than the one year would seem to indicate.  Historically this race has been difficult for three year olds to win, but this horse appears to be entering his prime at just the right time.  Will Take Charge has done just that in his last three races, posting his first three 100+ Beyers.  While the horse has never raced at Santa Anita, I believe this question mark is diminished by the fact that he ran a bullet five furlong workout over the track a week ago.  My reasoning for picking Will Take Charge is not speed, but once again pace.  “Pace makes the race” is a popular phrase in horse racing and in order to go against Game On Dude, you have to count on a quick early pace.  If this is the case as I believe it will be, Will Take Charge is a logical candidate as somewhat of a stone cold closer.  Because of the big odds on this horse, I will also be putting him in an exacta box with Game On Dude.