Numbers Never Lie: Clippers Edition

If you haven't seen the show "Numbers Never Lie" on ESPN2, consider yourself lucky.  It's a terrible show that poses completely subjective questions and pretends as if the statistics they provide as answers somehow give the viewer a definitive answer.  There is very little thought-provoking statistical analysis for a show that is supposedly based on numbers.  So here at D-League MVP, we are going to do our own version of "Numbers Never Lie" that doesn't totally suck.  Without further ado, let's find out: (1) if Griffin has improved his jump shot; (2) whether DJ has made the leap; and (3) is Mullens worthless?

Quick Thoughts on Clippers' Start

Eight games into the NBA season, the Clippers have navigated a fairly difficult early schedule about as one would expect, accumulating a 5-3 record.  Overall, the offense has looked even better than last year.  The Clippers are currently second in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 109 points per 100 possessions.  Chris Paul has been in attack mode more often than usual early in the season, Jamal Crawford is off to a red hot start much like last season, JJ Redick is scoring efficiently, and DeAndre Jordan is leading the NBA in offensive rebounding.  Blake Griffin is off to a terrific start as well, putting up 22.1 PPG on 57% shooting.  The constant nitpicking by members of the national media of Blake’s game (particularly his offensive game) actually make him one of the more underrated players in the NBA.  So that’s the good news….

But apparently, there is this other half of the game called defense.  Somebody should alert the Clippers to this fact.  The Clippers are 28^th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 106 points per 100 possessions.  While I will not pretend to have any expert insight into the defensive schemes that Doc Rivers is implementing, the most logical explanation for the Clippers' struggles is a learning curve.  This team was middle of the pack defensively last year and the personnel is no worse this season.  As the team learns to Rivers’ principles and system, I would expect them to rise to the middle of the pack or perhaps a bit better.

Bobcats Individual PERs After Five Games

Above are the Bobcats individual PERs after five games. Admittedly, this is a pretty small sample size, but it's at least a way to show which players have been making quality use of their time on the court. Comparing this graph to the graph below, you can see that Adrien has kept up the impressive early season performance in very limited minutes. Zeller, meanwhile, has picked it up a bit in games 4 and 5 to make up for an extremely lackluster first three games. Jannero Pargo is really screwing up the whole graph, but he also hasn't played enough minutes yet this season to hold it against him. Still,  something a little closer to zero would make it a lot easier to see the rest of the beautifully labeled columns. Pick it up Pargo!

After about a month of the season, the DLeague will continue to show off our Excel prowess by putting up some line graphs to show which players are on a hot streak and which players are slumping. Right now, teams just haven't played enough games to make it meaningful.

Breeders' Cup Classic Analysis & Picks

Before we get into the picks, it is necessary to provide a little background for casual horse racing fans regarding the meaning of this race.  While the Kentucky Derby is undoubtedly the most popular horse race every year, it might surprise many to learn that the competition in the Derby is significantly less talented than that in the Breeders' Cup Classic.  The reason for this is that the Kentucky Derby, along with the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, are limited to three year old horses.  The Breeders' Cup Classic, which should be considered the “Super Bowl” of American horse racing, allows for three year olds and upward.  Without further ado, let's breakdown some horses (so to speak).

The Favorite

#9 Game On Dude (8-5), Trainer Bob Baffert, Jockey Mike Smith

Game On Dude, the lone west coast horse in the field, is clearly the best horse in the country.  He is in the midst of one of the best years a six year old has ever had.  In five graded stakes races in 2013 (3 G1s and 2 G2s), the Bob Baffert trained horse is undefeated.  However, odds of 8-5 indicate a win probability of 38.46%.  Giving any horse that high of odds to win what is the most competitive race in the United States seems unwise.  This is especially true considering that no six year old has ever won the Breeders' Cup Classic and, while in top form a year ago, Game On Dude finished seventh in this very race.  Additionally, there are three other strong speed horses (Fort Larned, Moreno, Paynter) who could push the pace and make it difficult for Game On Dude to complete his typical gate to wire victory.  While I still believe this horse has the best chance in the field of winning this race, I am looking elsewhere for value.

Value Picks

#6 Mucho Macho Man (5-1), Trainer Kathy Ritvo, Jockey Gary Stevens

Typically an east coast horse, Mucho Macho Man has performed extremely well in two trips to Santa Anita.  In his first attempt in Arcadia, he finished a half-length behind the Fort Larned in this very race, earning a 110 Beyer Speed Figure.  In his last race here, Gary Stevens took the mount and won a G1 by an impressive four lengths over Paynter.  If the defending champion Fort Larned and Game On Dude get into a speed duel, I see Mucho Macho Man coming from just off the pace for a late victory.

#10 Will Take Charge (12-1), Trainer D. Wayne Lukas, Jockey Luis Saez

As horse racing aficionados are well aware, horses typically peak around the age of four.  The difference between a three and four year old horse is a more significant gap than the one year would seem to indicate.  Historically this race has been difficult for three year olds to win, but this horse appears to be entering his prime at just the right time.  Will Take Charge has done just that in his last three races, posting his first three 100+ Beyers.  While the horse has never raced at Santa Anita, I believe this question mark is diminished by the fact that he ran a bullet five furlong workout over the track a week ago.  My reasoning for picking Will Take Charge is not speed, but once again pace.  “Pace makes the race” is a popular phrase in horse racing and in order to go against Game On Dude, you have to count on a quick early pace.  If this is the case as I believe it will be, Will Take Charge is a logical candidate as somewhat of a stone cold closer.  Because of the big odds on this horse, I will also be putting him in an exacta box with Game On Dude.

D-League MVP Podcast Episode 2: Eastern Conference Preview

Check out the D-League MVP Podcast for analysis of the NBA's Eastern Conference.


Below are the official D-League MVP staff picks for the 2013-14 NBA Eastern Conference season win totals:

Heat Under 61.5

Bulls Over 57.5

Pacers Over 55

Nets Under 52.5

Knicks Over 49

Pistons Over 40.5

Bucks Over 28.5

Magic Over 23.5

76ers Under 16.5

That's right, nearly every team in the East will go over its total.  Mathematically impossible you say?  I say shut your nerd mouth.

D-League MVP Podcast Episode 1: Western Conference Preview

Check out the D-League MVP Podcast  for analysis of the NBA's Western Conference in addition to some comedy gold.

Below are the official D-League MVP staff picks for the 2013-14 NBA Western Conference season win totals:

Rockets Under 55

Grizzlies Over 51.5

Nuggets Over 46.5

Pelicans Under 40.5

Blazers Over 38.5

Lakers Under 36.5

Kings Over 32

Suns Under 20.5

Legal Disclaimer: All of the writers here at D-League MVP are professional sports bettors who will be profitable 100% of the time in the long run.  We do not take personal liability for ridiculous short-term variance which will almost assuredly cause these picks to lose.

10/30 Bobcats v. Rockets Preview

The NBA season is finally here, and starting lineups are almost set! The Bobcats start out the season on Wednesday, October 30, at the Houston Rockets with an 8 p.m. ET tip-off.

After the preseason, the starting lineups appear to be:

        Bobcats                                                   Rockets

PG: Kemba Walker                                         Jeremy Lin

SG: Gerald Henderson                                    James Harden*

SF: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist*                          Chandler Parsons

PF: Cody Zeller                                              Donatas Motiejunas

 C: Al Jefferson*                                             Dwight Howard

(*: Listed on NBA's injury report)

Out of the three guys listed as injured, it looks like Harden and MKG will both play. However, although Jefferson said "The ankle felt good," after Monday's practice, he is still listed as questionable to play Wednesday night. If Jefferson is a scratch, Biyombo should take the start at center.

Even if Jefferson plays, this is a brutal game to start the season with for the Bobcats. Most Bobcats fans should remember Howard with fear from the 2010 playoffs. The Bobcats, in their lone playoff series, threw just about everything at Howard to keep him in foul trouble for all four games. The extra attention on Howard limited him offensively, but opened up the floor for Vince Carter, Jameer Nelson, and Rashard Lewis to hit wide-open threes.

With a healthy D12 seemingly motivated and ready to flip the page with the Rockets, the Bobcats are going to struggle. Zeller and Jefferson are not notably strong defensive players and certainly cannot match Howard's athleticism (after all, few if any other centers can). Biyombo is still a raw prospect, even on the defensive side.

The main reason the team needs to worry about D12 is the same reason he destroyed the Bobcats in 2010—while only putting up 5 points in Game One, 15 in Game Two, 13 in Game Three, and 6 in the clinching Game Four. It's the space he opens up for the shooters around him. The Rockets are built to make opponents choose whether they want to lose by D12's improved post game with pick-and-rolls regularly sprinkled in, or by sharpshooters Harden and Parsons drilling threes from outside.

For away games against championship caliber teams, the Bobcats' best bet this season will be to focus on developing Kemba, MKG, and Zeller as a core of young talent—especially when Jefferson is questionable.

Three Things to Look Out for this Clippers Season

1. DeAndre Jordan's Improvement

Stop me if you have heard this one before, but this time it is for real...maybe.  Judging off of Doc Rivers' praise, Shaquille Olajuwon is in store for an incredible season.  Whoops, did I get that name right?  I meant DeAndre Jordan.  In all seriousness, Jordan will be a more impactful player for the Clippers in 2013-14.  In each of the last four seasons, Jordan's PER has improved, reaching a very respectable 17.21 last season.  Gaining another year of experience and coming under the tutelage of Doc Rivers will likely result in Jordan becoming an improved defender.  However, even if Jordan does not improve at all, he will still be a much better player for the Clippers this season.  The reason for this is that his 17.21 PER was only utilized for 24.5 mpg last season.  Rivers has already made it clear that Jordan will be part of a "big three" along with Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, so expect Jordan's minutes to go way up.  

Vinny Del Taco refused to play Jordan in the fourth quarter solely because of his inability to hit free throws.  Many of the pundits in the basketball world all seemed to agree that "you can't play this guy down the stretch" until he improves at the free throw line.  While the inability to hit free throws is certainly a liability late in games, there is precedent for this type of player being a crucial cog in closing line-ups.  Remember Ben Wallace? He played 38 mpg on the 2004 Champion Detroit Pistons while providing very little offensively and shooting sub-50% at the line.  Dennis Rodman shot below 55% during his successful tenure with the Bulls.  While these players obviously brought a lot more to the table than Jordan does at this point, the fact remains that Jordan is an efficient player despite his free throw woes.  

2. Floor-spacing Shooters

The Clippers offseason trade of Eric Bledsoe and Caron Butler for J.J. Redick and Jared Dudley was a stoke of genius.  While Bledsoe is a very intriguing piece, he was sitting behind the best point guard in the league and his lack of perimeter shooting prevented him from being a viable option at the two-guard.  A trade was inevitable and the Clippers turned one of its bigger weaknesses in perimeter shooting into a bona fide strength.  Dudley and Redick are career 40.5% and 39% 3-point shooters, respectively (for frame of reference, Ray Allen is a career 40.1% 3-point shooter).  

Not only does these wings' shooting prowess allow the Clippers to take further advantage of one of the most efficient shots in basketball, but it will also spread the floor for Chris Paul and Blake Griffin to navigate the interior.  Chris Paul will have plenty of room to drive into the lane and if the wing defenders collapse, he will find Redick or Dudley for trey.  Additionally, Griffin will be able to utilize the open space to make his awkward looking post moves that are surprisingly efficient.  If the defenders collapse, Griffin's third-highest assist rate among power forwards who played 20+ mpg last year show that he is an adept passer.  

3. Closing Line-up

One intriguing question about this roster is who will be on the floor in the last five minutes of the game?  Paul will obviously be the point guard, Redick will almost certainly be the shooting guard, and Griffin will be one of the bigs.  After that, the situation is unclear.  Last season, Jamal Crawford often played in the backcourt to close games.  The addition of Redick's ballhandling and scoring ability would seem to take away the need to put one of the worst defenders in the NBA on the floor simply to add some scoring punch.  Additionally, it is difficult to imagine a defensive-minded coach like Doc Rivers putting his faith in a guy like Crawford in crunch time.  

There could be a very interesting battle for late-game minutes between Jared Dudley and Matt Barnes at small forward.  Dudley is the better shooter and, by all accounts, a solid team defender.  Barnes is merely an average shooter but is a better slasher, rebounder, and defender.  While the match-ups may dictate which player gets the nod, Barnes seems to be the more likely choice here because of his ablility to defend the opponent's top perimeter scorer. 

While against certain teams, a small-ball line-up including both Barnes and Dudley could be utilized at the end of games, in most situations a true center will need to be in the game.  For the reasons discussed earlier, DeAndre Jordan will have every opportunity to be the man in the middle.

Three Things to Look Out For this Bobcats Season

1. Ben Gordon Trade

The good news here is that Gordon is definitely, per the Charlotte Observer, going to be ready to play the season opener. The even better news is that Gordon has one year left on his contract and is due $13.2 million. This makes for one heck of an expiring contract and there are some major free agents coming up next year (see: Bron Bron and Melo) that teams might need to shuffle around cap space to swing at.

The bad news is that Gordon hasn't been an above average NBA player since '07-'08. He's averaged less than a 15 PER ever since then, and his lack of effort last year with Coach Dunlap shows he isn't one of the character veterans teams try to fill rosters with. When Gordon's career winds down in the next 2-4 years, he's going to fall off a cliff productivity-wise. This won't be a gentle decline.

At this point, the Bobcats' best option is to unload the overpriced contract as quickly as possible for a future pick.

2. Jefferson's Shadow

The Bobcats' big new signing is confusing, to say the least. This team has been tanking and trying to improve through the draft for the past several seasons. It's been a painful process that has cost more than one coach their job. Then, the year before the light at the end of the tunnel comes out through the draft (see: Andrew Wiggins), the team overpays for Jefferson.

This isn't all bad. At the end of the day, Charlotte is not a free agent destination. It's a small media market, and doesn't have the night life of cities like Atlanta. The team will have to overpay, and Jefferson at least has one of the best low-post games in the NBA. He's been posting around a 20-22 PER for the past six seasons and seems like he'll keep that up for the length of the contract.

So, the problem here isn't Jefferson. It's that Jefferson is going to hurt the players around him. Jefferson's best skill, his low-post scoring, requires other players to space out of the low block and tailor their play to him. MKG's inability to post anything close to a respectable shooting percentage from anything outside of a layup or a dunk is going to be on full display in 2013. Also, Cody Zeller is going to have to figure out some way to develop while having to play alongside a big who can't play defense and needs the ball in his hands on offense. This is a problem.

3. Can Kemba keep it up?

One of the biggest bright spots of last season was Kemba's improved play. He became a true slashing threat and improved his shooting from the elbows significantly. His PER jumped from 14.98 in year one, the definition of league average, to a promising 18.86. If Kemba can get up to a 20+ PER in year three, he will start to turn some heads as one of the better PGs in the league.

The room for improvement comes mostly from his shooting percentages. Kemba improved his true shooting percentages from 46.4% in year one to 51.7% in year two. The growth is promising, but could certainly keep improving with Mark Price's coaching and has to keep improving to make up for MKG's feeble percentages. If Kemba can keep improving his shooting, the team will space more effectively and create lanes for MKG to slash through along with room for Jefferson to maneuver around on the block.

The eagle has landed.

Welcome to a new take on sports. We'll be featuring content that takes a look at the NBA, NFL, and occasionally some baseball thoughts on the side. We've got unique perspectives on gambling, fantasy, and the legal issues affecting major sports. Along with blogs, we'll post links to a regular podcast and maybe a couple videos.

No, we're not ESPN2 or Grantland 2.0. We're also not Deadspin or Barstool. We're something a little different. You might even say we're the best of the rest.