Numbers Never Lie: Clippers Edition

If you haven't seen the show "Numbers Never Lie" on ESPN2, consider yourself lucky.  It's a terrible show that poses completely subjective questions and pretends as if the statistics they provide as answers somehow give the viewer a definitive answer.  There is very little thought-provoking statistical analysis for a show that is supposedly based on numbers.  So here at D-League MVP, we are going to do our own version of "Numbers Never Lie" that doesn't totally suck.  Without further ado, let's find out: (1) if Griffin has improved his jump shot; (2) whether DJ has made the leap; and (3) is Mullens worthless?

Has Blake Griffin really improved his jump shot?

Numbers say: Yes

40.5% on catch and shoot FGs (ranks 56 out of 116 players who shoot more than 3 such FGA per game). 

The sample size is very small and Griffin still shoots his jumper on his way down, so it would be wise to be skeptical of Griffin’s sudden shooting prowess.  However, his numbers so far are very respectable, especially for a power forward.  He is ahead of players such as Dirk Nowitzki, Carmelo Anthony, and James Harden.  This is something D-League MVP will keep an eye on throughout the season.

Has DeAndre Jordan made the leap?

Numbers say: Yes and No

The yes:

% of rebounds per chance: 77.5 (2^nd in NBA among 196 players with 5+ rebound chances per game)

Offensive rebounds per game: 4.9 (1^st in NBA)

Minutes per game: 36.9 (14^th in NBA)

DeAndre Jordan is an efficient player and certainly a net positive for the Clippers.  However, Vinny Del Negro felt that he could not play in the fourth quarter and thus he only played 24.5 minutes per game last season.  This limited the level of impact DeAndre could have.  Rivers has shown that despite the hack-a-DeAndre tactic, he can still player 35+ minutes per game and, therefore, have a more positive effect on the Clippers’ chances of winning.  The numbers above also show that DeAndre has been an incredible rebounder so far this season. 

The no:

Opponent FG% at rim: 61.3 (79^th out of 86 players who defended 4+ shots at the rim per game)

Defensive points per 100 possessions while on the floor: 109

Defensively, DeAndre is supposed to be the anchor.  With the Clippers close to the bottom of the league on defense, it is fair to give him much of the blame.  There are way too many breakdowns defensively so far this season where no bigs rotate to stop a driving perimeter player.  DeAndre also has the bad habit of wasting a weak foul when he is late on his rotation leading to three-point play opportunities.  The high opponent field percentage at the rim is likely in part inflated by the fact that he has not been in the right position to effectively challenge opposing shots. 

Is BJ Mullens is worthless?

Numbers say: Yes

Career Three-Point FG%: 29.5

Defensive points per 100 possessions while on the floor: 122

Byron “don’t call me BJ” Mullens is a supposedly a stretch 5.  The only problem is that he doesn’t stretch the floor and can’t defend like a 5.  The three-point percentage is atrocious and the fact that any coach lets him keep shooting them is unfathomable to me.  The Clippers’ defensive rating while he is on the floor is 17 more points per 100 possessions than they allow overall.