59 games into the season, the Clippers are 39-20, which puts them on pace for around 54 wins. Although the Vegas season win total before the season was 57, the injury bug has hit the Clippers more significantly than anyone expected. Chris Paul, Matt Barnes, and J.J. Redick, arguably three of the five most important players on the roster, have missed significant chunks of games. In light of these injuries, Clippers fans should be very happy with the team's current record. The question now is, what factors will contribute to making or breaking the Clippers season going forward?
Small-Forward Production
Thus far, the team's small-forwards have a combined 9.9 PER, the only below-average position on the team. A 9.9 PER is drastically below the average 15 PER, however, so this has been a major problem. The primary reason for this is that Jared Dudley has been catastrophically disappointing. Coming into the season, Dudley was a career 40% three-point shooter. He is currently hitting threes at a 35.2% clip. His FT attempts are less than half of his career average and his percentage on those free throws is down by around 12%. Also down significantly are his FG%, assists, rebounds, and steals. The only number that has gone up are his personal fouls. Long story short, for whatever reason (poor conditioning coming into the season?, knee tendinitis?), Dudley sucks.
This would not be such a big problem if Matt Barnes were playing like himself. Unfortunately, his FG% is nearly a career low. He currently has a 9.8 PER. The defensive energy and production seem to be unaffected, however. And there is more good news, Barnes has been his usual dependable self in the month of February. He is averaging 11 points on 48.2% FGs, 41.3% on 4.6 3PT attempts per game. In order for the Clippers to make a legitimate run at the Western Conference Finals, Barnes needs to perform closer to February's production than his awful first half of the season.
The consensus among NBA fans for the past two seasons is that a competent backup big has been the Clippers' most glaring need. Last year, the two-headed monster of Ryan Hollins (11.3 PER) and Ronny Turiaf (9.37 PER) left a lot to be desired. This year, the only true backup big to get significant playing time has been Hollins (10 PER) and he has continued to be a foul machine with terrible hands, zero basketball IQ, and an inexplicable inability to grab rebounds. Glen Davis on the other hand, as Zach Lowe put in a recent piece on Grantland, "is a solid defender who moves his feet well and is borderline unmovable in the post." He has experience in the Doc Rivers-Tom Thibodeau defensive system so he should be ready to contribute right off the bat.
Goals for Rest of Season
1. Get Healthy
Health will be a huge factor in the Clippers' attempt to make a deep playoff run. As it stands, everyone on the team is now relatively healthy except for J.J. Redick. Redick is probably the fourth most important player on this team, behind the "Big Three." He is the team's only reliable three-point shooter and turns a very good offense into an elite one. Despite his athletic deficiencies defensively, he makes up for it with relentless energy and basketball IQ. He is lightyears ahead of Jamal Crawford in this area. Redick's presence also indirectly bolsters the bench by allowing Crawford to slot into his sixth man role.
Health will be a huge factor in the Clippers' attempt to make a deep playoff run. As it stands, everyone on the team is now relatively healthy except for J.J. Redick. Redick is probably the fourth most important player on this team, behind the "Big Three." He is the team's only reliable three-point shooter and turns a very good offense into an elite one. Despite his athletic deficiencies defensively, he makes up for it with relentless energy and basketball IQ. He is lightyears ahead of Jamal Crawford in this area. Redick's presence also indirectly bolsters the bench by allowing Crawford to slot into his sixth man role.
2. Get at least the "True" 4 Seed
The race for home court advantage in the first round will be one of the more intriguing story-lines in the final portion of the season. While the Clippers are guaranteed at least the 4 seed if they win the Pacific Division, this could be a meaningless 4 seed. This is because if the Clippers have a worse record than the 5 seed, then they will not have home court advantage in the series. The main competition for this "true" 4 seed is the Houston Rockets and the Portland Trailblazers. Currently, the Clippers are 1/2 game back of these two teams and need to jump one of them in the standings to get homecourt advantage in round one. The good news is that the Clippers have a higher percentage of home games left compared to the Rockets and Blazers, but this race could very well come down to the last week of the season.
The race for home court advantage in the first round will be one of the more intriguing story-lines in the final portion of the season. While the Clippers are guaranteed at least the 4 seed if they win the Pacific Division, this could be a meaningless 4 seed. This is because if the Clippers have a worse record than the 5 seed, then they will not have home court advantage in the series. The main competition for this "true" 4 seed is the Houston Rockets and the Portland Trailblazers. Currently, the Clippers are 1/2 game back of these two teams and need to jump one of them in the standings to get homecourt advantage in round one. The good news is that the Clippers have a higher percentage of home games left compared to the Rockets and Blazers, but this race could very well come down to the last week of the season.
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