The Panthers had a surprisingly strong season last year, finishing 12-4, with a tough home loss to the 49ers in the Divisional Playoff Round. Looking forward to next year, many pundits have identified WR as the position the Panthers need to improve the most via free agency or the draft.
Right now, both David Newton (the ESPN Panthers reporter) and Mel Kiper Jr. have the Panthers taking a WR in the first round. Kiper has the team selecting Brandin Cooks, a WR from Oregon St., with the 28th pick. This is a mistake, and they should take an OT instead.
Why Taking WRs High is A Mistake
Taking a WR in the first round is a mistake because no one knows what WRs will be successful in the NFL. Armit Dhar, now a grad student in the Univ. of Washington Department of Statistics, surveyed NFL combine and college stats for WRs from 1999-2011. I'm summarizing a much more in-depth article, which you should all go read here, but he concluded that the NFL combine numbers had very little predictive value for future NFL performance. The 40-yd dash, however, was predictive of the draft position. So, GMs draft based on numbers that don't predict future success. College stats, on the other hand, were more predictive of both ranking and success, but still a poor predictor in general of success.
These two conclusions are similar to what the Harvard Sports Analysis found a couple years ago here. They found that "none of the metrics measured at the combine significantly predicted the performance of wide receivers."
Put together, the two studies show that the numbers GMs use to select WRs are unreliable.
Now, this comes with a big caveat: drafting in the NFL, like betting markets, stock markets, and game theory, changes over time in response to past mistakes and overcorrections. So, although GMs may have drafted based on 40-yd draft times in the past, Dave Gettleman may have read the same articles I've covered here and started to ignore it. If that's true, then it may be less risky to draft a WR than it was in the past. However, based on the number of WRs that get taken every year and then flop, it's probably still a fairly variable position.
Why Taking an OT is Better
For the Panthers, OT is a serious need at a position that historically has been far easier to predict future NFL success. In other words, the Cats can draft a guy they will be much more confident in and avoid wasting a pick. The two biggest measurements that determine an OT's success are size and speed. Fortunately, these are easy to measure. That's why big draft picks like Ryan Kalil, Matt Kalil, and Luke Joeckel have succeeded on the next level.
It's sad to say goodbye to a Panther's stalwart like Jordan Gross, but he announced his retirement today and that creates an immediate need for the Cats. He's been a stalwart on the line and was one of two remaining guys on the Panthers from the 2003 Superbowl team (Steve Smith is the other). Panthers fans were hoping he would play for another year while the team develops his replacement, but it looks like the Cats will have to get started sooner rather than later.
Fortunately, this is a great year to draft a tackle. Scout's Inc. grades five different guys at 90+, with the fifth guy ranked #23 overall. Even if one of them doesn't fall to the Panthers at draft pick #28, Scout's also grades Morgan Moses as an 89 and ranks him #31 overall.
Here is the full list of the six guys the Panthers should look to draft: Greg Robinson from Auburn, Jake Matthews from Texas Tech, Taylor Lewan from Michigan, Zach Martin from Notre Dame, Cyrus Kouandjio from Alabama, and Morgan Moses from Virginia. With that said, the first three are unlikely to fall out of the top fifteen picks. So, unless the Cats trade up, they're looking at Martin, Kouandjio, and Moses.
Please, Panthers/Mr. Gettleman: don't listen to the pundits and draft a WR, or a backup QB until you shore up the line that's helped the future of the franchise (Cam Newton) stay healthy for the last three years.
Right now, both David Newton (the ESPN Panthers reporter) and Mel Kiper Jr. have the Panthers taking a WR in the first round. Kiper has the team selecting Brandin Cooks, a WR from Oregon St., with the 28th pick. This is a mistake, and they should take an OT instead.
Why Taking WRs High is A Mistake
Taking a WR in the first round is a mistake because no one knows what WRs will be successful in the NFL. Armit Dhar, now a grad student in the Univ. of Washington Department of Statistics, surveyed NFL combine and college stats for WRs from 1999-2011. I'm summarizing a much more in-depth article, which you should all go read here, but he concluded that the NFL combine numbers had very little predictive value for future NFL performance. The 40-yd dash, however, was predictive of the draft position. So, GMs draft based on numbers that don't predict future success. College stats, on the other hand, were more predictive of both ranking and success, but still a poor predictor in general of success.
These two conclusions are similar to what the Harvard Sports Analysis found a couple years ago here. They found that "none of the metrics measured at the combine significantly predicted the performance of wide receivers."
Put together, the two studies show that the numbers GMs use to select WRs are unreliable.
Now, this comes with a big caveat: drafting in the NFL, like betting markets, stock markets, and game theory, changes over time in response to past mistakes and overcorrections. So, although GMs may have drafted based on 40-yd draft times in the past, Dave Gettleman may have read the same articles I've covered here and started to ignore it. If that's true, then it may be less risky to draft a WR than it was in the past. However, based on the number of WRs that get taken every year and then flop, it's probably still a fairly variable position.
Why Taking an OT is Better
For the Panthers, OT is a serious need at a position that historically has been far easier to predict future NFL success. In other words, the Cats can draft a guy they will be much more confident in and avoid wasting a pick. The two biggest measurements that determine an OT's success are size and speed. Fortunately, these are easy to measure. That's why big draft picks like Ryan Kalil, Matt Kalil, and Luke Joeckel have succeeded on the next level.
It's sad to say goodbye to a Panther's stalwart like Jordan Gross, but he announced his retirement today and that creates an immediate need for the Cats. He's been a stalwart on the line and was one of two remaining guys on the Panthers from the 2003 Superbowl team (Steve Smith is the other). Panthers fans were hoping he would play for another year while the team develops his replacement, but it looks like the Cats will have to get started sooner rather than later.
Fortunately, this is a great year to draft a tackle. Scout's Inc. grades five different guys at 90+, with the fifth guy ranked #23 overall. Even if one of them doesn't fall to the Panthers at draft pick #28, Scout's also grades Morgan Moses as an 89 and ranks him #31 overall.
Here is the full list of the six guys the Panthers should look to draft: Greg Robinson from Auburn, Jake Matthews from Texas Tech, Taylor Lewan from Michigan, Zach Martin from Notre Dame, Cyrus Kouandjio from Alabama, and Morgan Moses from Virginia. With that said, the first three are unlikely to fall out of the top fifteen picks. So, unless the Cats trade up, they're looking at Martin, Kouandjio, and Moses.
Please, Panthers/Mr. Gettleman: don't listen to the pundits and draft a WR, or a backup QB until you shore up the line that's helped the future of the franchise (Cam Newton) stay healthy for the last three years.
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